It then takes some general theoretical assumptions of deterrence and examines them in the south asian context. Oct 06, 2014 the report covers a number of future concerns for the ussouth korea alliance, the usjapan alliance, and new threats to deterrence in the cyber and space domains. External support and help was critical, to varying degrees, for south asias nuclear breakout 4. Michael krepon, the myth of deterrence stability between nucleararmed rivals, in deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia, ed. The three countries have been evaluated on their strategic culture, the role of nuclear weapons in their overall military strategy, the nature of public opinion, responses to the various arms control treaties, and foreign policy choices. To purchase this ebook for personal use, or in paperback or.
Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in south asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the south asian region. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. The triadic relationship between india, pakistan and china and their nuclear weapons policies is analyzed in this volume. The nuclear deterrence equation in south asia is gradually changing amidst the acquisition of advanced technologies and missile developments by india, most notably the ballistic missile defence. Indian military modernization and conventional deterrence.
Deterrence only works well when decision makers behave in a rational manner. History, current views, and implications 1 extended nuclear deterrence has been one. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations. South asias nuclear postures and south asian stability, international security 34, no. In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content nuclear deterrence i nsouthasia the 1990 indopakistani crisis devin t. He is a physics graduate and has a masters in international relations from the university of bristol.
Strengthening deterrence in asia is a brief chairmens statement cowritten by richard l. An assessment of deterrence nuclear deterrence in south asia and stability in the indian pakistan conflict autumn 2010 maia juel giorgio, tina sondergaard madsen, jakob wigersma, mark westh global studies bachelor module. Shidore argues that two core operational aspects of indias strategic culture nuclear minimalism and strategic restraint are increasingly under stress, and that modifications of these precepts are likely to increase deterrence instability. Foreign polic y at brooking s arms control series the u. In this way, the overwhelming or asymmetric conventional war capability of one country is being balanced by a rival weak country through nuclear deterrence, though china is external to south asia. Even though the 1999 crisis erupted into a war, its scope and dimensions were carefully circumscribed.
In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content. The paper discusses several possible developments which might affect the efficacy of these viewpoints, and considers some measures for surmounting the limitations of deterrence. Deterrence stability and the conventional balance of forces in south asia 5 christopher clary, massachusetts institute of technology strategic restraint regime 2. Since 1991, the stimson center has examined the threat of conflict in south asia, ways to seek normal relations between india and pakistan, and means to reduce nuclear risks. Peace then becomes precarious and chances of nuclear employment become high. The genesis of south asian nuclear deterrence naeem. The deterrence equilibrium in south asia serves as an assurance for peace and stability in the region. These commonalities promote the possibilities for establishing an acr in south asia, which could ensure deterrence stability. Nuclear deterrence in south asia new technologies and. Nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south asia. Failure of coercive pressure to effect nuclear reversal 24. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india.
An examination of attitudes current in 1964 toward the subject of nuclear deterrence in asia. An examination of the onset, evolution, and termination of the 1999 and 200102 crises between india and pakistan suggests that nuclear deterrence is robust in south asia. This is a carefully argued, empirically sound and theoretically deft analysis of deterrence stability and its limits in south asia. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia.
This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new. Click download or read online button to get the nuclearization of south asia book now. Waning nuclear deterrence in south asia bulletin of the. Read download credible deterrence pdf pdf download. Nuclear deterrence i nsouthasia the 1990 indopakistani crisis devin t. It covers the historic evolution of the technological developments of the indian and pakistani programs and the nuances of the countries respective policies towards the international nonproliferation regime.
Hagevty d i d india and pakistan nearly fight a nuclear war in 1990. Nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south. Apr 07, 2005 the triadic relationship between india, pakistan and china and their nuclear weapons policies is analyzed in this volume. The second scenario is of growing concern in south asia. The nuclearization of south asia download ebook pdf, epub. Indian policy is based on the cumulative ghandian and nehruvian philosophy of greater india abbasi 2015. Deterrence at risk in south asia because of the threats posed by nonstate actors and third party interventions, traditional nuclear deterrence policies cannot work in south asias complex. Delivery systems developed before actual weaponisation took place 3. This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Chinas approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first nuclear test in 1964. The essys in this collection explore and analyze how to reduce the risk of nuclear war in south asia. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry, and conflict escalation in. Jun 28, 2016 peace then becomes precarious and chances of nuclear employment become high. Leaders in both india and pakistan must recognize that a continued cold warstyle military arms buildup, absent a framework for conflict resolution, threatens the stability of.
May 21, 2015 contrary to these critical episodes, the commonalities between the nuclear weapons states in south asia should not be sidelined. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. The nuclearization of south asia download ebook pdf. Key elements are its nofirstuse policy and reliance on a small force of nuclear weapons capable of executing retaliatory strikes if china is attacked.
The report covers a number of future concerns for the ussouth korea alliance, the usjapan alliance, and new threats to deterrence in the cyber and space domains. Uses and limitations of nuclear deterrence in asia rand. The authors describe the implications of the evolving. Entering the new era of deterrence kindle edition by kim, sung chull, cohen, michael d download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. If you dont want to wait have a look at our ebook offers and start reading immediately. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry and conflict escalation in south asia and if nuclear weapons are acquired by two states that are traditional and bitter rivals, should that not also foster our concern.
Click download or read online button to get the illogic of american nuclear strategy book now. Jan 19, 2012 features of south asian nuclearization 1. Rhetorical question by kenneth waltz, 19811 india and pakistan have maintained a relationship of animosity since partition in 1947. Pakistans nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. Nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south asia devin t. Contributors work to introduce the theory and methodology of nuclear risk reduction, to provide specific measures that might work best in the region, and to consider the consequences of missile. Mar 14, 2018 he is a physics graduate and has a masters in international relations from the university of bristol. Mar 27, 2018 deterrence only works well when decision makers behave in a rational manner. Nuclear deterrence in south asia 81 nuclear deterrence rebuts this perspective, suggesting instead that proliferation has stabilizing effects.
Pdf nuclear deterrence in south asia suresh dhanda. Nuclear deterrence in south asia ebook by rizwana abbasi. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia. By contrast, there is a veritable torrent of writings on the implications of. Read nuclear deterrence in south asia new technologies and challenges to sustainable peace by rizwana abbasi available from rakuten kobo. Tools to improve nuclear stability and deterrence in south asia 175. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia, edited by michael krepon and julia thompson. His research interests include nuclear deterrence, coercion, and south asian stability at the nuclear, conventional and subconventional levels of conflict.
External support and help was critical, to varying degrees, for south asia s nuclear breakout 4. Pdf the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. South asias lessons, evolving dynamics, and trajectories. Aug 30, 2012 deterrence at risk in south asia because of the threats posed by nonstate actors and third party interventions, traditional nuclear deterrence policies cannot work in south asias complex. He pointed out that this statement signalled a threat to pakistan with first use of nuclear weapons. This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to. The future of us extended deterrence in asia to 2025. In applying each of the above arguments to the east asian context, the analysis finds that not only is extended nuclear deterrence alive and kicking in the region, but also that in the coming decades it is likely to become more central to the strategic policies of the. Nuclear risk reduction in south asia michael krepon. The national command authority on wednesday stated that nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia and expressed its resolve to maintain full spectrum deterrence, in line. This site is like a library, use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want.
It assesses the stability of indopakistani nuclear deterrence and argues that, while deterrence dampens the likelihood of escalation to conventionaland possibly nuclearwar, the chronically embittered relations between new delhi and islamabad mean that deterrence failure resulting in major warfare cannot be ruled out. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the preva. The strategic significance of nuclear weapons in the south asian security equation is. Hagevty d i d india and pakistan nearly fight a nuclear. Similarly, in todays second nuclear and postcoldwar age, credible minimum deterrence can play a pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability, especially in the south asian context.
Pdf on mar 24, 2010, mohan malik and others published the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. Ohanlon, steven pifer, and kenneth m pollack monday, june 7. In the evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia, the author argues that the dynamics of strategic stability inherent in the possession of nuclear weapons is. Nuclear deterrence in south asia involves two very different states. The first nuclear learning course nuclear south asia. The south asia segment here addresses what is currently known from public sources about indian and pakistani nuclear postures, policies, strategies, forces, command and control issues, delivery system acquisition trends, and plausible doctrinal evolution. The genesis of south asian nuclear deterrence is an attempt to provide a complete picture of the dynamics of south asian nuclearization. Pdf the evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia ciss. The first part of this paper highlights the debate between nuclear proliferation optimists and pessimists. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading north korea and nuclear weapons. Fortunately, a new history of nuclear india and nuclear pakistan is emerging, a history by which scholars and policy makers alike can judge whether the predictions of the deterrence optimists or the organizational pessimists have been borne out. It provides appropriate details about the diplomatic and strategic postures of both india and pakistan, and it discusses possible pathways for enhancing deterrence stability in the region. Problem solving perspectives on security, sustainable development, and good. The illogic of american nuclear strategy download ebook.
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